2024 NASCAR Cup Playoff Preview (2024)

Did You Notice? … The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs feature seven new contenders who didn’t make it in last year? It’s a record amount of year-to-year turnover since the current 16-driver, multi-round format was introduced in 2014.

In some ways, this playoff has produced one of the most diverse fields in years, featuring two first timers (Ty Gibbs and Harrison Burton) along with a team in Stewart-Haas Racing poised to lay off hundreds of people come November. Its regular season champion, Tyler Reddick, won it for the first time along with his 23XI Racing team seeking their first Championship 4 appearance.

And in other ways? It’s a very predictable group of drivers at the top. 11 of the 16 drivers come from the best team of each manufacturer: Team Penske (Ford), Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) and Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota). And four of the top five seeds, compiling the most playoff points throughout the season, comprise last year’s Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron and Ryan Blaney.

So, which side of this postseason field will win out? Can new blood reassert themselves or are we destined to have a repeat of 2023 come Phoenix Raceway?

This year’s playoff preview asserts a little of both.

First-Round Snoozers

Harrison Burton. What a feel good story Burton has been the last two weeks, coming out of nowhere to win at Daytona International Speedway in August. In the matter of 45 seconds, he rose from dead last in points among drivers who started every Cup race to stealing a playoff spot. That’s your current format in a nutshell, and not everyone is as excited about it as his dad calling the race from the NBC booth.

Jeff’s son still earned the 100th victory for the Wood Brothers and respect from a team that fired him without remorse months earlier. It’s a best-case scenario for a 2024 driver who entered the summer in crisis, seeking a bite not just from a Cup team but anyone for a 2025 full-time ride.

But getting more at this point would surprise even Cinderella herself. Burton has never finished better than 10th at any of the three tracks in the Round of 16: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Watkins Glen International or Bristol Motor Speedway. This year’s average finish of 25.7 is the worst of his Cup career.

Best case scenario: Burton rides the draft to a shocking top-five at Atlanta, survives Watkins Glen and somehow pulls a top 15 at a crash-filled Bristol to eke out a Round of 12 appearance. Front Row Motorsports or Spire shocks the world and turns his way for a long-term contract.

Reality: See ya later, Harrison. (after the Round of 16 and, in 10 races, from a full-time Cup ride).

Martin Truex, Jr. It’s always shocking to see any of the “big three” teams mentioned above eliminated in the Round of 16. It’s even tougher for Truex, set to leave JGR and retire from full-time Cup racing effective the end of the season.

That leaves Truex and the No. 19 team with nothing to lose. But anyone expecting a Jeff Gordon-style run, a la 2015, hasn’t been watching a Cup race all summer. Truex nearly tanked out of the playoffs completely, crashing out at Darlington Raceway and landing just six points in front of Chris Buescher for the final playoff spot.

That early exit completed the Dog Days of Martin: since Olympic Break, he’s blown an engine at Richmond, hit the wall with arguably the best car at Michigan, wrecked at Daytona and then took himself out in the Southern 500.

None of that inspires confidence in a turnaround, even with a Round of 16 slate that’s favorable to Truex: he was runner-up at Bristol just this spring. It feels like the chemistry with crew chief James Small has been off for some time now and all it’ll take is one Atlanta wreck to leave the confidence here fully deflated.

It’s not the ending Truex deserves. But maybe a Round of 16 exit will cause a rally that gives us an unexpected win later in the playoffs.

Best case scenario: Truex summons his old road course prowess and wins Watkins Glen (or Bristol). He survives Round of 12 roulette and sneaks into the Round of 8, threatening a Gordon Part II at Martinsville Speedway before getting nudged out of the way on the last lap. (What the perfect way for the Small-Truex tenure to end, right?)

Reality: Truex crashes out at Atlanta, runs an uncharacteristic 20th at Watkins Glen and the pressure gets to him at Bristol. I’d be afraid to be around the No. 19 if/when that happens.

Alex Bowman. It’s never good when you start your postseason with a rumor you’re out of a ride, as DBC hinted this week at rumors Bowman is headed for the exits at Hendrick Motorsports.

Bowman does seem off his game since an unlikely win at the Chicago Street Course in July. That was supposed to cement his future at HMS. Instead, he enters the playoffs without a top-10 finish in five straight races, posting an average finish of 24.2 during that span. He’s led just 14 measly laps during the year, only one more than Burton who was 34th in points before his Daytona miracle.

The first round of tracks don’t play to Bowman’s strengths: he’s never had a top-10 finish at Watkins Glen (seven starts) or a top-five finish at Atlanta since the repave. And he starts on the cutline, leaving no margin for error.

Feels messy, right? But Bowman’s proved people wrong before.

Best case scenario: Bowman posts top fives at Atlanta and Bristol, making the Round of 12 before an unexpected win at Kansas. It all flames out in the Round of 8, but not without a fight (remember, 1.5-mile tracks like Las Vegas and Homestead-Miami are Bowman’s specialty). Hendrick’s seen enough and he survives in the No. 48 for 2025.

Reality: A first-round playoff exit, leaving Ally and HMS with a very interesting decision to make considering Bowman is still signed through 2026.

William Byron. This one is wild, I know. Byron was the championship favorite back in the spring, winning three of the first eight races. Two HMS cars out in the first round might cause an actual earthquake in Charlotte.

But something is weird over in the No. 24 camp. Since Memorial Day weekend, Byron’s led just 23 laps after spending the spring a cut above. He’s crashed three of the last five weeks. His finishes at two of the three Round of 16 tracks were 17th and 35th, respectively.

A tighter field this year gives Byron just a 17-point edge on 12th. That’s not enough to withstand two mistakes. The defending Watkins Glen champ should, in theory, be in strong contention to repeat. But if he doesn’t? I’m concerned.

Best case scenario: Byron wins the Glen, then the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, then Martinsville on the way to his first ever championship. Holding the trophy, he’ll laugh and remind us reporters Jimmie Johnson looked like hell more than a few summers before charging back to win it all.

Reality: There’s a weird wreck at Atlanta, the No. 24 is caught up and a top-five finish at the Glen doesn’t take the pressure off at Bristol. A tire pops and, like clockwork, we have another surprise first-round exit from a championship favorite.

Seeking Miracles

Austin Cindric. June’s win at World Wide Technology Raceway likely saved Cindric’s ride with Penske. Anything more at this point is house money.

But it feels like Cindric and Penske have cards to play. The first round sets up nicely for the No. 2 team after a fourth-place surprise at Atlanta this spring. Cindric is a road course expert and has a 14.5 career average finish at the Glen. That should be enough for him to sneak through unless Bristol ends in carnage.

From there, who knows? Whatever happens, not a bad season considering what could have happened if Blaney didn’t run out of fuel and Bell didn’t blow an engine.

Best case scenario: Round of 12 listed above, then Talladega magic before a Charlotte ROVAL rush to the front pushes him into the Round of 8. From there… he’s eighth.

Reality: 12th feels like a steal. Take it and run, Austin.

Ty Gibbs. Gibbs flexed some muscle to hold off other bubble drivers, posting back-to-back top-five finishes at Michigan and Daytona. He might have been top three at the Southern 500, too, if not for a three-abreast Josh Berry move gone wrong.

It’s not inconceivable the momentum carries over to his first career Cup win. Gibbs was the best at Bristol, sweeping two stages this spring until tire wear bit him down the stretch. He was fifth at Las Vegas in March, a track JGR runs well at.

It’s just hard to see a winless driver go all the way, especially one in their first Cup playoff experience. Gibbs is going the right direction but will soon be reminded he has a lot to learn.

Best case: A Bristol win builds momentum. Talladega delivers him a second and, suddenly, Gibbs is the story of the playoffs. All bets are off in the Round of 8 as we’ve seen this type of talent from him before; a spirited run at Martinsville falls just short of the final round.

Reality: Surviving the Round of 16, then another Kansas Speedway crisis-turned-Talladega-wreck-turned-Round of 12 exit feels right.

Daniel Suarez. No one has been giving the No. 99 team at Trackhouse Racing any credit. Suarez is used to that, playing second fiddle to the more aggressive Ross Chastain. But this team has their program in order, quietly posting three top-10 finishes in the last five races before the playoffs.

Atlanta was where it all began for Suarez, a win by inches setting up a long-term contract extension for Trackhouse. The Mexican native also has a strong track record at Watkins Glen, posting his first career top-five finish there in 2017.

That’s enough to get him a round. From there, Suarez has to prove he can turn those eighths into thirds at places like Kansas. That’s a tougher job.

Best case: A strong Round of 16 plus Talladega survival plus chaos around him equals Round of 8.

Reality: A strong Round of 16 brings overconfidence Suarez can be this year’s breakthrough underdog. A 25th at Kansas, crash at Talladega and disappearing act at the ROVAL leaves them holding the bag.

Chase Elliott. I had to double check my sanity before taking out three Hendrick cars before the semifinal round. Then again, that’s how off this organization has been the last few months with the exception of Kyle Larson.

For a while, Elliott’s ho-hum season was hidden within some impressive consistency: before a Daytona wreck in August, he’d completed all but one lap this year. That DNF kept him from regular season championship contention and reminded us that Elliott has shown us what, exactly, since Texas Motor Speedway’s win in April?

The answer would be no top-five finishes since June at Iowa Speedway, only 87 laps led and no serious push for a win. When Austin Dillon has more notable late-race charges than you do, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Best case scenario: Elliott rides the hometown crowd to a standing ovation Atlanta win. That brings back the fire and the No. 9 team rolls: wins at Talladega and Martinsville before a runner-up finish in the Championship 4.

Reality: Elliott’s taken a step back on road courses with the Next Gen and there are two in the first six races. Add in pack racing unpredictability, some summer struggles on intermediates and it’s just not enough to go deep.

Feel-Good Stories

Brad Keselowski. The 2012 Cup champ is back in the postseason without his teammate after passing wounded RFK teammate Buescher for a Darlington win in May. Since then, it’s been a solid, if unspectacular season that has landed the 40-year-old with another title shot.

But Keselowski knows how to use solid to his advantage. He’s pointed his way deep into the playoffs with one-win seasons and has made the Championship 4 as recently as 2020. There’s no real track aside from Watkins Glen that poses a serious weakness for the No. 6 group and that’s his true advantage; in a year where contenders seem to yo-yo from week to week he’ll 10th-place you to death.

That gives him a shot to go far.

Best case: Keselowski wins at Bristol, then Talladega before points aren’t enough in the Round of 8. Even in the best of cases, it’s hard to see him winning Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami or Martinsville, and that’s what he’s going to need.

Reality: Keselowski wins one of the two races above and winds up about the same. Feels like RFK remains a few good resources away from challenging Penske.

Chase Briscoe. What Briscoe has done for SHR is amazing and should be applauded. A four-car team playing out the string before closing suddenly had new life courtesy of a ballsy three-abreast move that left Briscoe holding a Southern 500 trophy in his hands last weekend.

Suddenly, a No. 14 team people thought could contend at the beginning of 2024 has new life breathed into it. And it’s armed with a driver who thrives under pressure. Take it from crew chief Richard Boswell: “I think when you back him in a corner like that, we’ve seen it in the past with his career, kind of the path he’s been on, when you back him in a corner, he’s dangerous. I love seeing this Chase Briscoe. I cannot wait to race with this Chase Briscoe for the next 10 weeks.”

Best case (and what I think): Briscoe runs through the playoffs on adrenaline. Top fives at Atlanta, Bristol, Talladega and Charlotte get him through to the Round of 8. Intermediate struggles leave him just short of the Championship 4 but that’s after a runner-up at Martinsville, sparks flying as he fights with Hamlin for the win.

Worst case: There’s a wreck or Atlanta and the Glen, the balloon pops and the momentum runs out. Briscoe offers the wildest swing of anyone.

The True Contenders

We have a slightly different format for the final six drivers, as the championship will all-but-certainly come from this half-dozen. I’ll rank them from six to one, but honestly? I think it’s really close between them all.

6) Joey Logano. Logano is here because of his success in even-numbered years: Championship 4 appearances in 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022 with wins in ’18 and ’22.

Early on, it felt like ’24 might not replicate that success but Logano got a dose of luck with a chaotic finish at Nashville. Circ*mstances and skill gifting him the win, the No. 22 has shown pace ever since although three crashes in the last five races give me pause.

Strengths: Bristol, Watkins Glen, Las Vegas (where Logano won the pole this spring)

Weaknesses: Early season struggles, anger toward Dillon re: a stolen Richmond win in August, the Round of 12 tracks, a teammate in Blaney who has more speed

5) Ryan Blaney. Blaney ended the regular season with back-to-back crashes, both not of his making, which may make him a trendy first-round surprise exit for some critics.

Don’t buy it. The reigning champ has strength across all track types and both his wins have come in the last 10 races. Each round brings with it a track in Blaney’s wheelhouse: Atlanta/Bristol (Round of 16), Talladega (Round of 12) and Martinsville (Round of 8). Penske’s intermediate prowess will only help in that semifinal round, and Phoenix? Blaney was fifth back in the spring.

Quiet should not mean counted out.

Strengths: Atlanta, Bristol, Kansas, Talladega, Las Vegas, Martinsville, Phoenix, experience

Weaknesses: Watkins Glen, Homestead-Miami, a fiery temper on the radio, getting a little too aggressive at the wrong times

4) Tyler Reddick. The regular season champ gutted it out, besting a stomach virus to beat Larson by just a single point after the Southern 500. With 23XI Racing co-owner Michael Jordan in attendance, it was easily the peak of the young team’s four-year existence.

Now comes the hard part. Can Reddick stay consistent enough to go all the way? After the Round of 16, he has a win or top-five finish this year at tracks in the next two rounds: a win at Talladega, second at Las Vegas.

The key will be for Reddick to already lock down the Championship 4 before Martinsville. The 1.5-mile tracks plus the road courses continue to be this team’s strength and they’ll need to take advantage of it against teams with more resources. But Reddick, at 28, seems more focused than ever.

Strengths: Intermediates, Charlotte ROVAL, Phoenix (if he gets there)

Weaknesses: Bristol, Martinsville, a rivalry with Chris Buescher

3) Christopher Bell. Bell has been a forgotten man in past years all the way up to back-to-back Championship 4 appearances. Not this time. He’s already won three times, tying a season high, and one of those was at Phoenix back in the spring.

The speed is there for Bell to win four or five times more in the playoffs. Or… maybe none? The luck swings so far for Bell on either side it’s hard to know what you’re going to get. He already has six DNFs, tying the most in his Cup career, and is always in position to get caught up in someone else’s mess.

Strengths: Bristol, Kansas, Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami, Phoenix

Weaknesses: Consistency, Atlanta, Talladega, Hamlin (if they both make the Championship 4)

2) Kyle Larson. Larson should win this title going away. He’s got the most playoff points (40) of any driver in the field and leads the series in wins (four) and laps led (1,088). It feels like this year could have resembled 2021, Larson contending in a handful more races down the stretch.

The problem remains the No. 5 team still gives races away. A lot of them. Larson tends to get a little too aggressive with this car and suddenly, a promising race weekend is wiped out. Crashing on his own at Michigan is the most recent example but there’s plenty more. For a potential two-time champion, Larson still pushes this car too far a heck of a lot.

Whether that’s regular season enthusiasm or a trend that bites him remains to be seen. But if Larson can just keep the car going straight, it feels like he could win any or all of the last 10 races. You can’t say that about any other driver in this postseason field.

Strengths: Kyle Larson

Weaknesses: Kyle Larson. That’s really it.

1) Denny Hamlin. At 44, it feels like now or never for Hamlin to grab the title he’s coveted for so long. Only one driver, Bobby Allison, has won age 45 or older.

The speed is there for him. So is the consistency. Even with a bizarre engine penalty handed down months after his Bristol win this spring, Hamlin starts with just seven points less than fourth-seeded William Byron. That’s ground easily made up with a handful of postseason wins, and the tracks early on work well for the No. 11 team: winning two of the first four races is not out of the question.

The concern, as always, is whether Hamlin gets distracted emotionally. A crisis of confidence has sometimes led to the wrong Martinsville moves at the wrong times. Two years ago, the aggression of Ross Chastain beat him; last year, Hamlin led a race-high 156 laps before losing out to the speed of Blaney. He needs to put that race on ice, it feels like, to give the necessary momentum toward a championship run.

I think this time, he’ll get there. And if Martinsville happens, it feels like a Chase Elliott 2020 moment where the final two races get swept.

Strengths: Short tracks, Kansas, Watkins Glen, Homestead-Miami, Phoenix

Weaknesses: His own confidence, competition within JGR, Atlanta, Talladega

Championship 4: Logano, Reddick, Bell, Hamlin

Champion: Hamlin

Follow Tom Bowles on X at @NASCARBowles